Cum hoc ergo propter hoc
Correlation does not imply causation.
“Sleeping eight hours a day keeps you healthy and makes you healthy” is a good example of this type of causal fallacy. Studies show that the healthiest people sleep approximately 8 hours per day. I don’t argue with that. I do argue with the cum hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin for “with this, therefore because of this”) causal conclusion that sleeping 8 hours makes a person healthy and/or keeps them healthy. Healthy people simply sleep on average about 8 hours per day. Those who are sick sleep much more because of exhaustion, or much less, because of pain makes it difficult to sleep.
The four populations of Pygmies of the Ituri rain forest, collectively known as the Bambuti, believe that the forest is somehow alive in a mega-integrated sense, that it has a soul, and a kind and generous person, who is sociable, friendly, and honest will be looked after by the god of the forest, and will catch much more game as a reward from the god of the forest.
This is the same type of causal fallacy. The fact is that good hunters who bring home more than they and/or their family can possibly eat dole out the extra portions to neighbors so that some one will benefit from the excess before the meat spoils. If a bountiful hunter did not do so, he would be shunned, shamed, and ostracized by the group. So, of course he’s going to thought of as kind, generous, sociable, friendly and honest.
That does not mean that being king, generous, sociable, friendly and honest is going to make you a good hunter. Cum hoc ergo procter hoc.
My Filipina wife thinks that if she whistles she can call the wind on a hot day. If we are out, perhaps sitting in the shade munching on mangos and drinking buko juice (fresh clear coconut juice), and I’m sweating like an Anglo-Saxon in the tropics (which is exactly the situation), she will whistle for the wind. If the wind doesn’t blow, she’ll whistle some more. If the wind still doesn’t blow, she’ll whistle some more. When the wind does finally pick up, she’ll say “See, it does work!”
Of course, eventually, especially in the hilly tropics, some thermal inversion is going go happen pretty regularly, hot air goes up, cool air comes down and when it hits the ground it spreads out along the ground, causing a wind. It just doesn’t not happen.
Cum hoc ergo procter hoc.
You don’t just see this error in people who have never had a course in Logic, you see it in academia all the time as well, like in claims that 8 hours of sleep, or regular sleeping habits will keep your healthy.